On the sidelines of the April 2025 BIMSTEC summit in Bangkok, the Myanmar junta, through its Foreign Minister, confirmed that 180,000 Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh are eligible for return. While Bangladesh had provided a list of 800,000 Rohingyas for verification, junta’s Foreign Minister also assured that the verification of the remaining 550,000 Rohingyas would be expedited.
Hope was raised by the news because a repatriation agreement, even if it is only partial, marks the conclusion of a long-running problem. However, a closer look reveals that this is only a token act, a publicity gimmick by a regime looking to bolster its eroding credibility.
Myanmar has a long history of unfulfilled promises on the Rohingya issue. Following international condemnation of the genocide, the government and Bangladesh inked an agreement in 2017 to make it easier for the displaced Rohingya to return. However, several repatriation attempts even with Chinese mediation were unsuccessful.
Repatriation barriers are intentional rather than just logistical snags. One of the main pillars of the Rohingya’s subjugation is the Citizenship Law of 1982. Even though they had lived in Rakhine State for millennia, this law essentially made them stateless by removing them from the list of recognized ethnic groups. The Rohingya cannot travel freely, own land, or receive an education if they do not have citizenship.
Even if 180,000 Rohingya returned, they would still be considered noncitizens in their own nation and would be subject to the same persecution that forced them to leave because the Myanmar government has demonstrated no intention of repealing or changing this law. Eligibility announcements are nothing if this basic injustice is not addressed.
Additionally, the documentation and the reality on the ground in Rakhine do not correspond. Since 2017, a lot has occurred. Over 80 percent of Rakhine is currently under the Arakan Army’s (AA) authority. Instead of welcoming the Rohingya, the AA is accused of launching a campaign to expel the surviving Rohingya from Rakhine. In light of this fact, repatriation is impossible without AA’s agreement, even with the junta’s assent.
With a wider civil conflict, economic collapse, and international isolation, Myanmar’s junta is in dire need of legitimacy and aid. Their recent promise to repatriate 180,000 Rohingya is less about humanitarianism and more about purchasing goodwill. With Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim as its chair, ASEAN is speaking out more about the Rohingya issue. By cashing repatriation drama, the junta seeks to appease Malaysia and other ASEAN nations, avoiding censure and gaining diplomatic leeway.
With a million Rohingya FDMN, Bangladesh is unlikely to fall on Myanmar’s deceit, it expressed skepticism. The requirements for a safe, voluntary return are still lacking, and Myanmar has consistently fallen short of its pledges. The Rohingya, who are crammed into large camps in Cox’s Bazar, are also distrustful. They have already experienced this pattern: big statements, followed by red tape, unrealistic expectations (such as requesting documents they do not have since they are stateless), and finally, nothing. Without guarantees of safety, citizenship and a genuine home to return to, the Rohingya have no reason to board on buses to Myanmar.
By working with Bangladesh to address a problem it caused, the junta hopes the world will view it as a responsible actor. The situation is clear-cut, though: Myanmar has no plans to accept the Rohingya as equal citizens. Those 180,000 who are considered “eligible” are merely figures on paper, a statistic to be waved at UN and ASEAN conferences. The Rohingya are still ensnared, undesired in Myanmar, stateless in Bangladesh, and largely forgotten worldwide.
This deception must be exposed by the international community. Beginning with the 1982 Citizenship Law, pressure should be increased on Myanmar to remove the structural and legal obstacles that put the Rohingya in a state of uncertainty. The Arakan Army and Junta must put an end to the “Islamophobia” campaign and ensure cultural and religious co-existence among Rakhine Buddhists and Rohingya Muslims.
ASEAN, led by Malaysia, has an opportunity to demand genuine accountability rather than empty rhetoric. World leaders must ensure a ‘time-bound plan for sustainable resolution of the Rohingya crisis’ at the upcoming ‘high-level UN Conference on Rohingya’ in September 2025. Furthermore, Bangladesh, which is struggling to provide for a million refugees, deserves more than just platitudes; it requires practical assistance in handling the situation that Myanmar is unable to address.
