UN’s Corridor Plan for Myanmar Can Become a Headache For India. Here’s Why

Bangladesh has agreed in principle to a controversial UN proposal for a so-called humanitarian corridor from Cox’s Bazar to the Rakhine state of Myanmar. The humanitarian corridor will apparently deliver aid to the civilian (non-Rohingya) population of the Rakhine state affected by the civil war. The rebel Arakan Army, fighting the Myanmar military junta, controls most of the Rakhine state.

Although Bangladesh officials are offering mixed signals on the corridor in the face of political opposition, once implemented, it could evolve into an arena for the playing out of US-China rivalries.

A Safe Passage for Rohingyas Unlikely

The corridor was originally conceived as a safe passage for the repatriation of Rohingya refugees from Bangladesh. After a United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) report in 2024 about a silent famine in the Rakhine, it seems to have been repurposed for supplying food, medicine, and other essentials to the (non-Rohingya) population suffering there.

Although UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres insists this will not detract from eventual safe repatriation for Rohingyas, that is unlikely.

The region is under the Arakan Army’s control and the terror it unleashed against the Rohingyas led to many of them fleeing to Bangladesh.

Some strategic experts have warned that the so-called humanitarian corridor may actually be part of a US proxy war against China’s influence in Myanmar.

The Bangladesh Army has already secured a site, the river port of Silkhali. Personnel from the US Army Pacific (USARPAC) stationed at Hawaii will provide logistics and security for the corridor and the internally displaced people in the Rakhine. How they will be deployed inside Myanmar without getting embroiled in a military conflict remains unclear.

Since the UN has no boots on the ground, it will only bring the essential aid to Silkhali. The logistics of taking the aid across the corridor and deciding to whom it will be delivered will be left to the USARPAC.
The Arakan Army, as the only functioning authority in the Rakhine state, will be the likely recipient, further consolidating its position.

The Chinese Connect

The Rakhine’s geostrategic importance for China cannot be underestimated. It will play an increasingly critical role in providing ports, gas pipelines and energy security to China, and be its gateway to the Indian Ocean.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative has two sea corridors: the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) which begins in Xinjiang and ends in Pakistan’s Gwadar Port; and the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), which begins in Yunnan and ends at the Kyaukphyu Deep Sea Port in the Rakhine. The CMEC is designed to be a lifeline to energy-starved Western China.

The Sino-Myanmar oil and gas pipeline already transports Middle East gas and oil from Kyaukphyu to Yunnan in China.
China’s long-term lease on the Kyaukphyu Deep-Sea Port will be important in helping it bypass the traditional sea routes through the Strait of Malacca, a potential choke point that can be controlled by the US.

Although Kyaukphyu is officially a commercial project, strategic experts are apprehensive that it may be repurposed for military use.
China provides financial and military support to Myanmar’s military junta to retain its geopolitical leverage. According to unconfirmed reports it may be safeguarding its investments in the Rakhine by also indirectly helping the Arakan Army. The Rakhine humanitarian corridor thus has the potential to destabilise China’s game plans.

Aside from big power rivalries playing out in Myanmar, the decision of Bangladesh to support the corridor is fraught with several problems.