With world leaders in New York this week for the UN General Assembly, they are once again affirming their commitment to international law, human rights and the protection of the most vulnerable. Yet one of the gravest humanitarian crises of our time, the plight of the Rohingya, stands as proof that these principles are eroding in plain sight.
Seven years have passed since Myanmar’s military launched a campaign of ethnic cleansing against the Rohingya, driving more than 740,000 people into Bangladesh. Today, nearly a million live in sprawling camps around Cox’s Bazar. They are stateless, stripped of citizenship by Myanmar, unwanted in Bangladesh and largely forgotten by the world. International aid, once a lifeline, is collapsing as donor fatigue sets in. Food rations have been cut to the bone. Education and healthcare are minimal. Children are growing up with no future beyond dependency and despair.
This is not simply another refugee crisis. The Rohingya have become a test case for whether the international refugee protection regime, built after the Second World War, has any meaning left. If the world permits one of the largest acts of forced displacement of this century to result in permanent statelessness, then the message is clear: ethnic cleansing works.
The danger of that precedent is not abstract. Other regimes are watching closely. If Myanmar can get away with expelling and erasing an entire minority group, what is to stop governments elsewhere from pursuing the same strategy against unwanted populations? The collapse of the Rohingya’s rights is not just a regional issue, it undermines the entire foundation of international refugee norms.
The UNGA has not been silent. Year after year, it has passed resolutions condemning Myanmar and urging accountability. But resolutions without enforcement are little more than words. The junta, still clinging to power in Naypyitaw, has faced no meaningful consequences. China and Russia continue to shield it at the UN Security Council, blocking any path toward binding action.
Meanwhile, the conflict inside Myanmar has taken a new turn. The Arakan Army now controls much of Rakhine State, where the Rohingya once lived. But the Arakan Army and its political wing, the United League of Arakan, also refuse to recognize the Rohingya identity. They have outlawed the use of the word “Rohingya” in their territory. For refugees hoping for a dignified return, this is yet another door closed.
Bangladesh, for its part, continues to insist that repatriation is the only acceptable solution. But every attempt to broker a return has failed. Dhaka will not grant the Rohingya permanent status or meaningful integration. Yet Myanmar, whether under the junta or the Arakan Army, will not welcome them back with rights. This deadlock is the reason the crisis has become permanent and why the refugee system itself now hangs in the balance.
International accountability mechanisms also face collapse. The International Court of Justice is hearing a case brought by Gambia, accusing Myanmar of genocide. The International Criminal Court has opened investigations. But these processes move at a glacial pace. Survivors of the 2017 massacres are dying without justice. Witness testimony is fading. The longer justice is delayed, the more the world risks normalizing the erasure of the Rohingya.
The consequences of inaction are not limited to law or morality. Leaving nearly a million people in limbo creates a breeding ground for instability. Armed groups and criminal networks are already exploiting the camps. Frustration and despair among the youth are growing. For Bangladesh, this is a security time bomb. For the wider region, it is a source of volatility that could spill across borders.
So, what should the UNGA do? First, governments must reverse the funding collapse. Rations and aid must be restored to prevent outright famine. Second, the Rohingya crisis must be elevated as a test of the refugee protection regime. This is not a marginal humanitarian issue, it is central to whether the global order established after 1945 still holds. Third, international actors should expand engagement beyond the junta. The national unity government, which has pledged to restore Rohingya rights, and the Arakan Army, which now holds real power on the ground, both need to be pressed and incentivized to commit to a just solution.
Above all, the international community must recognize that time is running out. A whole generation of Rohingya children is growing up stateless, denied education and identity. If nothing changes, within a decade the world will have produced the largest generation of permanently displaced people in history. That outcome would not just be a tragedy for the Rohingya. It would signal to the world that the refugee system itself has collapsed, that forced displacement works and that ethnic cleansing can succeed.
Dr. Azeem Ibrahim is the director of special initiatives at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington, DC. X: @AzeemIbrahim
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