In the far-western corner of Myanmar, the crisis in Rakhine State is spiraling toward a catastrophe that could reverberate far beyond its borders. For months, both ethnic Rakhine Buddhists and Rohingya Muslims have been trapped under an all-encompassing blockade imposed by Myanmar’s military regime. It is not an accidental collapse of supply routes – it is a calculated strategy, weaponizing hunger to punish and control entire communities.
Food, medicine, and humanitarian assistance have been cut off almost entirely. In some towns, residents survive on rice husks, roots, or whatever meager scraps they can trade in increasingly barren markets. Aid workers have been shut out. The United Nations and major relief organizations are blocked from reaching the worst-hit areas. Hospitals are running out of antibiotics, painkillers, and even basic rehydration salts. Pregnant women give birth without medical care; the elderly die from treatable illnesses.
The junta’s blockade is not without precedent. In 2017, during its campaign against the Rohingya, Myanmar’s military burned crops, destroyed food stocks, and poisoned wells in a brutal effort to drive people from their homes. Today’s tactics in Rakhine follow the same blueprint – but this time, the deprivation is indiscriminate, affecting all who live within the sealed-off zones.
The Arakan Army (AA), an ethnic armed group now controlling large swaths of Rakhine, claims to be offering better governance than the junta. But while the AA’s rise has diminished the military’s reach in some areas, it has not translated into robust humanitarian access. Political calculations, military priorities, and a lack of resources mean that aid remains dangerously scarce. For civilians, the reality is stark: two power centers, neither of which can or will ensure that lifesaving supplies reach those in need.
From a legal standpoint, the blockade is unambiguous. International humanitarian law prohibits the starvation of civilians as a method of warfare. Article 54 of Additional Protocol I to the Geneva Conventions is explicit, and the Rome Statute defines such actions as a war crime. Yet, in practice, these violations continue with little more than statements of concern from the international community.
What makes this crisis particularly dangerous is its potential to destabilize the wider region. Rakhine is strategically located along the Bay of Bengal and borders Bangladesh. Should the blockade persist, mass displacement is inevitable. Bangladesh – already hosting nearly one million Rohingya refugees from the 2017 exodus – would face an impossible humanitarian burden. Its resources are stretched thin, public tolerance is wearing down, and international donor fatigue is growing.
India, sharing a long border with Myanmar’s restive northeast, would also be exposed to the spillover. An influx of displaced people could heighten tensions in border states already grappling with insurgency and fragile security. Meanwhile, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), whose credibility has already suffered from its inability to influence Myanmar’s military, risks further irrelevance if it fails to respond.
The current international approach – negotiating humanitarian access through Naypyitaw – has failed repeatedly. Every delay strengthens the junta’s grip and worsens the suffering. The alternative is to bypass the central government entirely. This could mean establishing cross-border aid corridors from Bangladesh and India, coordinated by neutral humanitarian actors and supported by willing donor nations.
Bangladesh’s hesitancy to work directly with armed actors in Myanmar is understandable, rooted in fears of diplomatic fallout. However, the scale of the crisis may soon leave Dhaka with no alternative but to consider unconventional options. By partnering with trusted relief agencies, it could facilitate aid delivery without becoming entangled in the political and military complexities of the conflict.
India, with its geographic proximity and influence in the Bay of Bengal, is also positioned to take a leading role. By engaging in coordinated humanitarian diplomacy, it could counterbalance China’s deepening involvement in Myanmar, while projecting itself as a regional stabilizer.
For ASEAN, the crisis is a test of its capacity to adapt. If the bloc cannot reach a consensus – as has often been the case on Myanmar – its most capable members, such as Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, could form a coalition to drive cross-border relief efforts. Such action would not constitute military intervention but rather a humanitarian necessity consistent with international law.
The cost of inaction is grimly predictable. If the blockade remains in place, thousands will perish not in sudden violence, but through the slow attrition of hunger and untreated disease. Communities will disintegrate, and the vacuum left behind will be filled by black-market networks, criminal syndicates, and extremist elements. Refugee flows will increase, human trafficking will intensify, and the region’s fragile security balance will be further eroded.
History’s record is already damning. The 2017 Rohingya crisis was recognized as a genocide, yet the perpetrators faced minimal consequences. Pledges of “never again” have proven hollow. The current situation in Rakhine is an opportunity – perhaps the last – for regional and global actors to prove those words have meaning.
The people of Rakhine have adopted a bitter refrain: “If we die, we die.” It is not fatalism born of apathy, but resignation after years of betrayal – by their government, by armed groups claiming to defend them, and by an international community unwilling to confront the perpetrators. That sentiment should not be allowed to stand unchallenged.
Famine is not officially declared by those who are starving; it is declared by those who document the deaths. Waiting for formal declarations is a bureaucratic luxury the people of Rakhine cannot afford. By the time international agencies decide that the threshold has been crossed, the tragedy will already be irreversible.
The time to act is now. Cross-border humanitarian corridors, coordinated regional diplomacy, and direct aid delivery must replace the failed strategy of pleading with the junta. The blockade should be recognized for what it is – a deliberate war crime – and addressed with the urgency and resolve that such a crime demands.
If the world does not intervene, the words “if we die, we die” will become not a warning, but the final verdict on Rakhine’s abandoned population.
About author: Kazi Mamunur Rashid, serves as Secretary General of Jatiyo Party (JaPa)
