By Brig Gen (Retd) Hasan Md Shamsuddin
The Arakan Army currently controls the Bangladesh-Myanmar border and is continuing its activities to consolidate its dominance in Rakhine State. Since the military operation against the Myanmar junta forces in November 2023, the Arakan Army has captured 14 of the 17 townships in Rakhine State and the Paletwa region in South Chin State.
Currently, the Arakan Army has expanded its influence in Rakhine State, as well as in Magwe, Bago and Ayeyarwady regions. The Arakan Army Chief, Twan Mrat Naing, was able to secure their victory in Rakhine by resolving the internal differences and crisis in Rakhine and bringing everyone under the umbrella of the Arakan Army and its political wing – United League of Arakan.
In December 2024, the Arakan Army captured Maungdaw Township and its surrounding areas. At that time, to reduce the number of casualties, residences were evacuated from the Maungdaw area. After Arakan Army took control of the township they are currently allowing those displaced people to return there. Although the Arakan Army is occupying most of Rakhine, it has not been able to establish peace there and for various reasons failed to declare the occupied area an independent state.
Although most of Rakhine is under the control of the Arakan Army, it is not time to think that the Myanmar army will hand over this area to them, and there is no prospect of Rakhine becoming independent or self-governing very soon.
The location of Myanmar’s Arakan State is very important from both geopolitical and geostrategic perspectives. Regional and global powers have interests in the Rakhine region. Global and regional powers like the United States, China and India are working to increase their dominance and influence around the Indian Ocean. The kyaukpyu region of Myanmar’s Rakhine State is very important strategically and economically for China. It is known that China’s own security forces are active to ensure the security of China’s deep sea port, pipeline and other Chinese infrastructures located there. They are using various technologies including drones to continue safeguarding them from any attack.
Rakhine and Chin state in Myanmar has major strategic relevance for India since it borders two northeastern Indian states and houses the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project (KMTTP), a vital Indian infrastructure effort. Recognizing the Arakan Army’s control, India is engaging with the Arakan Army to ensure the project’s security, smooth operation and to secure investments in Rakhine. The Kaladan project is critical to India’s “Act East” program, improving connectivity and trade with its northeastern states. China’s large investments in Rakhine, notably in Kyaukphyu, which is strategically important to the Myanmar regime, complicate India’s relationship with the Arakan Army. India is in a delicate position due to its connection with the Myanmar government, participation in the Arakan Army, and strategic interests in the region.
The United States is interested in Rakhine State, Myanmar, because of concerns about human rights, democracy, and regional stability. The United States has voiced great concern about the violence and displacement in Rakhine, including allegations of towns being torched and citizens, including Rohingyas, being pushed from their homes. They are dedicated to seeking justice for victims and holding those responsible for atrocities accountable. The United States has voiced alarm about the possibility of further escalation of the crisis in Rakhine and its implications for the region. The United States has also sponsored civil society and democratization activities in Myanmar, especially through the BURMA Act.
The United States continues work together with international allies to resolve the crisis in Rakhine and hold those responsible for cruelty accountable. The United States has also emphasized the need for a long-term solution for Rohingyas, including their safe and voluntary return to Rakhine State. In summary, the US is closely watching the situation in Rakhine State, with a focus on human rights, humanitarian needs, and regional stability, and is taking steps to address the issue as part of its larger policy aims for Myanmar.
The situation in Rakhine state is clearly going to stay this way for a while. In this circumstance, the international community should work to restore peace while also continuing development initiatives in Arakan Army-controlled territories. Efforts should be made to strengthen the relationship between Rakhine and the Rohingya population through various programs.
To ensure their presence, the Myanmar Army conducts frequent bombings in regions controlled by the Arakan Army. The number of casualties from the junta’s attacks is growing. Bomb assaults have devastated several educational institutions, hospitals, religious places of worship, and homesAs a result, panic is spreading among the residents. In such a situation, there is a fear of infiltration into Bangladesh by the Rohingyas as well as other communities in Rakhine.
In early 2024, the army wanted to use the Rohingya against the Arakan Army. However, this strategy of the army to incite ethnic hatred was not entirely successful. The areas from which the Rohingya were evicted in Rakhine State in 2017 are now under the control of the Arakan Army. The Arakan Army is fighting the Myanmar army to secure their rights in Rakhine. The Arakan Army needs to understand what they should do if the Rohingya do not get their just rights back. The Arakan Army must urgently stop the persecution of the Rohingyas and take initiatives to ensure peaceful coexistence between the Rakhine and Rohingya in Rakhine State.
The Rohingya organization Arakan Rohingya Society for Peace and Humanity said that due to the ongoing atrocities and tortures by the Arakan Army on the Rohingyas in Rakhine, Rohingyas are being evicted from their homes almost every day. Many are fleeing to Bangladesh after being subjected to torture and abuse, including murder and rape. Due to the violent situation in Rakhine, 118,000 Rohingyas have fled to Bangladesh in the last one year. There is international pressure to include representatives of Rohingya and other ethnic groups in the Arakan Army administration. It is reported that the Arakan Army has recently been holding meetings with Rohingyas in the occupied areas to normalize the situation and are being assured of their safety. But the outcome of these efforts is not visible yet.
If effective measures are taken to improve the education and skills of the Rohingyas in Bangladesh and Myanmar, they will be able to contribute to the development of Rakhine as a credible workforce. Due to lack of sufficient funds, UNICEF and Save the Children have announced the closure of all educational institutions in the Rohingya camps inside Bangladesh for an indefinite period. There are a total of 6,493 educational institutions in the camps, and 230,000 children and students in the Rohingya camps are at risk of education due to the funding crisis. If effective measures are not taken immediately, it will have a negative impact on resolving the Rohingya crisis.
If international assistance decreases, especially food aid, the Rohingyas will be forced to make difficult decisions. The frustration and anger that the aid crisis is causing among the Rohingyas could force them to rebel. If the Rohingya crisis is not permanently resolved, it could become a serious threat to regional security. If young people are deprived of education and employment opportunities, they may be inclined to extremism and violence. Poverty, inequality and underdevelopment, if left unchecked, can lead to violence and instability. Initiatives must be taken to improve the quality of life of the people in the areas under the control of the Arakan Army. The Rohingya must also be brought into the mainstream and work for the overall welfare of Rakhine. In the coming days, the Arakan Army must move forward with all citizens of Rakhine, regardless of their religion or caste, in the mainstream of Rakhine. Effective steps must be taken to gain the trust of the Rohingya and prove that they are capable of governing Rakhine with everyone.
Efforts should be taken to develop the infrastructure, education and eliminate unemployment of this poverty-stricken state by utilizing the interests of powerful countries in Rakhine. These development-oriented activities will help strengthen the economy of this state and it is expected that ethnic hatred will decrease along with economic prosperity. This will make it possible to work towards improving relations between the Rohingya and Rakhine communities and enable everyone to live peacefully in Rakhine State. The Rohingyas must also unite to achieve their goals. They must fill the leadership vacuum among them and achieve their goals in Rakhine, i.e., return to their homeland and ensure peaceful coexistence there. They must establish contact with the Arakan Army and resolve all problems through dialogue.
All stakeholders involved in resolving the Rohingya crisis must be supported and given opportunities to create this opportunity. At the same time, the Rohingyas living in Bangladesh and Rakhine must also prepare to understand their rights in their own country, and continue to negotiate with the NUG, Arakan Army and other political parties in Myanmar to establish their rights. In addition, they must increase their contact with the United Nations and all other stakeholders working to resolve the Rohingya crisis. Although Myanmar is a neighboring country of Bangladesh, there is no significant contact between the two countries. This distance needs to be reduced through regular communication. In addition to increasing cultural contacts between Bangladesh and Myanmar, agricultural and commercial cooperation also needs to be increased.
The Arakan Army has now become an essential partner in any meaningful initiative for the repatriation of Rohingyas who have taken refuge in Bangladesh. Building a relationship of trust between the Arakan Army, the Rohingya, and Bangladesh is very important to avoid future conflicts. In order to resolve the Rohingya crisis, it is necessary to engage with the Arakan Army and the NUG, in addition to the military junta. After the Arakan Army took control of Rakhine, the interim government of Bangladesh has started communicating with them. It is hoped that in future this effort will continue. To ensure the satabilty and peace in Rohingya camps inside Bangladesh, flow of aid must continue. All the stakeholders should take effective steps to ensure this uninterrupted support.
In the coming days, the Arakan Army will need international recognition to gain recognition in the political arena. If the Arakan Army continues atrocities with the Rohingyas like the Myanmar Army, they too must be brought to justice. They must be charged with genocide and ethnic cleansing, violence and crimes against humanity and tried in an international court, which is never desirable for a political force. The Arakan Army must be held accountable for the new Rohingya infiltration and the exodus of the Rohingya, and full security must be ensured for the Rohingya in the areas controlled by them.
Rohingya leaders living in Rakhine and leaders of the organizations protecting the interests of the Rohingyas abroad must inform the international community about the atrocities of the Arakan Army, as well as the Myanmar Army, and build global public opinion against it. If the Arakan Army obtains complete control of Rakhine in the future, it will need international and regional backing, as well as multifaceted cooperation. Many problems may be avoided by maintaining positive relations with Bangladesh. It is hoped that peace would return to Rakhine under the leadership of the Arakan Army, and that the Rohingya, Rakhine, and other people in Rakhine State will flourish and thrive through peaceful cohabitation.
Brig Gen (Retd) Hasan Md Shamsuddin
Brig Gen (Retd) Hasan Md Shamsuddin, NDC, AFWC, PSC, MPhil, Researcher on Myanmar, Rohingya and ASEAN affairs.
